New infections and deaths associated with the coronavirus fell in absolute numbers in recent days. Both the Johns Hopkins University and Worldometers figures, as well as the analyzes that allow their curves, they project that if this trend continues the new pandemic could be coming to an end.
For now, the daily flow of global cases now represents only 1.2% on average of the total number of registered cases and 0.5% of deaths.
Unless there is a rebound, a behavior of the virus that science cannot yet predict, These parameters coincide in showing that the pandemic that strikes the world could completely stagnate in a month.
How is the exchange rate and the case curve determined?
For the Johns Hopkins University "Coupling the curve involves reducing the number of new cases of COVID-19 from one day to the next." In principle, this allows health systems to adapt their resources to treat them.
"When a country has fewer new cases from one day to the previous, that is a sign that the country is flattening the curve," explains the world reference institution.
On a total case trend line, a flattened curve looks like what it sounds like: flat. The famous Hopkins University curve, an indicator that allows analyzing the trend of the virus, arises from a 5-day moving average to view the number of new cases and calculate the exchange rate. This is calculated for each day by averaging the values for that day, the previous two days and the following two days.
This approach helps prevent important events (such as a change in reporting methods) from skewing the data.
The West, a flattened curve
In the 25 countries with the highest number of infected, this number of new cases is, on average more than five days, less than 2% of the total. The exception is made Brazil (+ 5%), Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Mexico (4%), India and Russia (3%) where the official number of cases is still in relation to the proportion of the country's population.
Between the Western countries, the most affected in the world, this daily increase is only 0.5% in the United States, 0.3% in Germany, 0.2% in France, Italy and Spain. In Switzerland, it's only been 0.05% per day since early May. However, Belgium (0.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%) have higher averages.
However, and despite the fact that this actual number of infected may be higher than the official number worldwide Since no country systematically assesses its population, there is no evidence to suggest that the trend is different.
Regarding the Dead people, two thirds of which are concentrated in western countries, in the last days its increase occurs very slowly. There may even be occasional increases, as has happened in the United States, with more than 1,500 deaths. In Italy, Spain and France, in the last week the average is close to 100 people per day. Switzerland, to give another example, has shown a single death since May 10.
Admissions to hospital services, another hopeful fact
These numbers are falling and health systems are no longer overwhelmed, as it was at the height of atypical pneumonia in the second half of March. As in France or Spain, many field hospitals have been dismantled or are empty and in "quarantine".
By combining the views of the current curves, the daily flow of infections and deaths, the trend leads to "zero" within a month, unless there is a significant rebound after the ongoing quarantine easings.
And an average two weeks after the exits to the rigid quarantines in Europe, the registered cases begin to be “cluster” or “focused” as they begin to be mentioned among European sanitarians. Contagions, such as those seen in fridges or schools in Germany or France, are viewed with concern, although they cause immediate sectorized, group and specific quarantines.
Does the pandemic stop?
The library of epidemiologists is divided. The question for the moment has no answer. Quarantines or confinements may have cut the Covid-19 dynamic. The truth is that it started, at the beginning of the pandemic, of an increase in contagions of 20% per day worldwide.
As of today there is no treatment, nor an effective and scientifically proven vaccine for the virus. Therefore, an answer to this "dyspnea" of the pandemic has no explanation either. And adding to the questions that the countries have adopted very different strategies. Nor can one speak of a seasonal virus; there are countries like Ecuador or New Zealand, with data so different that they do not allow such a conclusion.
Imperceptible in Asia, and with surprising low growth in Africa, in an analysis by country and the 40 most inhabited in the world, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico or Indonesia, have 2% of new cases per day. Therefore, and with these percentages, in proportion to its total population, the contagion rate remains low.
With the ongoing discussion on the preventive use of hydroxychloroquine that President Donald Trump reintroduced, seeking the position of French virologist Didier Rault, and that encourages its use, also becomes timely. Curve in support, he told French news channel BFM TV: "For us, the epidemic is gradually disappearing," adding, "It may have disappeared in the spring."
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