The new coronavirus, reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) for the first time in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has meant the loss of a considerable sum of human lives throughout the world. However, the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has developed at different speeds in each territory.
In Mexico, the disease has accumulated a total of 2,217 new deaths in one week, according to the latest report of the Ministry of Health. Last Sunday, May 17, the figure was at 5,177 deaths while the last update of the authorities registered 7,394.
On the other hand, the number of infections also had a significant increase in the same period of time, as it went from 49,219 to 68,620 throwing a difference of 19,401 new positive cases of coronavirus in Mexico.
The number of registered deaths places the country in the place number ten worldwide. However, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, the case fatality rate is 10.9% and registers 5.69 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.
Said information was presented a day after two months had elapsed since the start of the National Day of Sana Distancia, in which the Mexican government announced the measures to be implemented to deal with the pandemic that globally totals 344,731 deaths and 5,467,945 confirmed cases.
And is that, In recent months, a halo of uncertainty has been created regarding the number of deaths due to the coronavirus.. Multiple investigations have used statistical resources to obtain results that are closer to reality, so that you can get a better idea of the rate of expansion of COVID-19 in the country and with this, direct policies that reduce the disease mortality.
As part of these efforts, a study estimated that Between January 1 and May 20, 2020, 8,072 death certificates were issued, more than the average number of certificates issued during the last four years.
Research carried out by Mario Romero Zavala and Laurianne Despeghel and published in the magazine Links seeks to study the excess mortality derived from the health crisis, which is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the higher lethality as a function of the mortality rate without crisis in the population of interest. It is calculated by comparing deaths during the contingency period with the expected value based on past trends.
This calculation includes people who died of coronavirus and were confirmed by a test, as well as deaths recorded for different causes. Within the latter, the indirect deaths from COVID-19 that they could not be attended due to the saturation of health services or that they did not attend to receive medical attention for fear of becoming infected.
In addition to this, the study clarifies, it is likely that traffic accidents may present decreases due to the government's call to stay home, directly related to the pandemic.
Through the digital review and search of pages of death certificates on the site of the General Directorate of the Civil Registry of Mexico City and crossing these data with some death statistics from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the authors were able to determine that:
"As of the close of March 2020, it is observed how the trend of the year of 2020 moves away from that of the years 2016 to 2018 at a rate that accelerates in April and May. A differential of about 10,000 deaths is observed at the end of May, based on the estimate for the last 10 days of the month. ”
This is important since, you can see the apparent excess mortality in each month. Which, according to the study, shows that in April, said surplus was 2,429 deaths and 7,395 in the fifth month of the year.
Until May 20, it is inferred that there was 8,072 deaths, which represents a figure higher than the number of deaths reported by date of death by the Ministry of Health (SSa), which until the May 22 court, it reported 1,832 deaths.
Furthermore, the investigation estimates that official deaths from coronavirus in Mexico from April 1 to May 20 represent approximately 25% of the excess mortality observed in the same period, when comparing the model with the SSa data.
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