US Intelligence Officials Are Funding Research on Dollar-Crushing ‘Black Swan’ Events

The U.S. Workplace of the Director of Nationwide Intelligence (ODNI) needs to sponsor a post-doctoral researcher to check what would occur if the U.S. greenback misplaced its standing because the world’s reserve forex.

In a job itemizing posted late final yr, the company known as for candidates from the U.S. who've a background in economics. The deadline to use is Feb. 28.

The company stated the analysis – the primary of its type for the intelligence group’s post-doc program – may assist the U.S. put together for “black swan” occasions that will threaten the dominance of the greenback. This sort of unpredictable occasion is past what is often anticipated of a scenario and has probably extreme penalties.

This specific examine falls beneath the purview of the Nationwide Counterproliferation Heart, an ODNI unit that appears for tactics to fight the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, partially by stopping terrorist financing. In keeping with intelligence officers acquainted with the matter, the analysis could be shared broadly throughout the intelligence group.

Whereas officers wouldn’t attribute the examine’s initiation to anyone occasion or pattern, the post-doc researcher itemizing does cite predictions from “cryptocurrency fans” {that a} world cryptocurrency or nationwide digital forex may undermine the U.S. greenback, and mentions the rising economies of China and India.

"If both of those situations or others come to cross, the U.S. would lose each its standing on the earth and its world authorities,” the company wrote within the itemizing. “The U.S. ought to put together to determine potential 'black swan' occasions that would revolutionize the monetary taking part in discipline in methods we don't but perceive – presenting strategic shock – and perceive root causes and driving components which are significantly delicate to sure world or technical occasions."

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The post-doc program begins firstly of the following fiscal yr on Oct. 1 and runs for 2 years. The analysis is unclassified and the researcher doesn’t obtain any particular clearances, however researchers will obtain ODNI’s sponsorship, funding and entry to IT together with superior computing, the officers stated. The company additionally wouldn’t management the researcher’s work however would examine in periodically to verify the company understands it. 

ODNI stated it might probably additionally join the researcher with consultants at ODNI and different authorities entities, just like the Federal Reserve, however is not going to present knowledge or data that isn't already publicly out there. 

The company is on the lookout for a researcher who will apply statistics, synthetic intelligence and deep studying to historic “black swan” occasions and potential future situations. The itemizing suggests the researcher would possibly then search for what the almost definitely situations are and in what timeframes they might unfold.

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